India’s Future After 2019 Elections
This is an interesting topic to discuss. Unfortunately, there are no great positives to be expected and this has been evident in the lower voter turn-out when compared to 2014.
Situation in 2014
Indians were fed up of a corrupt, arrogant and non-performing Sonia government. The Anna Hazare anti-corruption movement and Modi’s image of an efficient administrator energized the voters for a change of regime. Thus Modi got a massive mandate to govern.
Situation in 2019
Modi proved over 5 years of misrule that not only he is more corrupt, more arrogant, more incompetent and in addition a promoter of divisive politics. In short his misrule makes Sonia misrule appear as not too bad. The loss of 3 state elections by Modi owes more to Modi not meeting the people’s aspirations rather than anything great about Rahul & Congress.
Possibility One: Modi Re-elected PM
Modi is re-elected as PM with a much weaker mandate. What will happen then in the next 5 years:
- Modi’s Credibility. The partisan role played by the Election Commission during the 5 years in general and since the announcement of general elections in particular has been such that the opposition parties will claim that the elections were rigged. That Modi has won through dubious means will be the popular perception. He will be a much weaker and less credible PM.
- Economy. Indian economy has suffered under Modi misrule. Farmers’ distress and increase in unemployment are truths which cannot be endlessly defended by false propaganda. Modi is incompetent to solve the economic problems with the support of Ambani, Adani and his incompetent cronies like Jaitley & others. Economic distress will lead to massive protests within 2 years (by 2021 definitely). It may lead to the fall of Modi government through protests and a revolution.
- Kashmir & Pakistan. The situation in Kashmir and relations with Pakistan will deteriorate further. Feelings of separatism will increase. More terrorists will be created; more Kashmiris will be killed and so also security forces personnel.
- State of Democracy. India will get closer to Pakistan as a sham democracy with further erosion of all democratic institutions including the Judiciary.
- Farmers & Muslims will be forced to unite in a revolt against Modi. This revolt may be non-violent to start with but may become violent as well. Modi will use force to suppress the protests because he is incapable of solving the problems.
In short, Modi, if re-elected to power, will witness a fall of his government definitely within 3 years, that is by 2022.
Possibility Two: Congress Led Government
Congress supported by SP, BSP, TMC, Chandrababu Naidu & others form the government. This will be quite an inefficient government. There will be plenty of infighting and regular power struggles within the government. This government will be beneficial for India in the following manner:
- Democratic institutions, including the media will revive.
- The situation in Kashmir will improve.
- Some solutions would be arrived at to tackle the farmers’ distress and address the unemployment problems.
- The NPAs problem will reduce and the names of at least those who have been conducting financial fraud on India will get known.
- Corruption will continue as earlier.
- MGNREGA will receive greater support of the government. NYAY, the brainchild of Congress, will not be implemented.
- Retired Defence Personnel may get OROP.
- Muslims will be harassed a little less.
This government will also witness protests within 2-3 years because of corruption, poor state of the economy and inability to create enough jobs. A new leader will emerge from the revolution. Modi and BJP, as a strong opposition, will try their best to paralyze the government to serve their selfish interests because Modi has never been concerned about national interests.
This government may survive the complete 5 years or may not.
Overall for India
Overall for India both the possibilities are bad. The Congress forming the government is a better option than Modi. In any case good days are too far away!