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India is facing grave crisis. Some created by the outside world & some by us. They need resolution. Let us understand them.
Corona is going to be with us for long. What the PM said about it being a 21 day battle was totally wrong. The peak is expected to be reached in Nov. No one can predict that well. Some hard truths should be known. Community transmission is on. The official figures which get reported may be about 1/5th of the actual figures. 50-60% of us will get infected. We should observe precautions and make efforts to improve our immunity. We should guard our elders. The healthcare machinery will not be able to cope with the patients India will have. We should be prepared for this future. Life must go on. We must not be scared but continue to live with caution. No more lockdowns & stoppages of activities.
China has unilaterally changed the LAC and broken the protocols agreed in 93 as well the agreements reached on 6 Jun between the military commanders. Threat posed by China will exist for long on the LAC. China will continue to nibble our territory.
There is China-Pakistan politico-military collusion. A military action by Pakistan may be supported by China.
Bangladesh, Nepal & Bhutan will remain neutral & cannot be expected to help India. The entire neighbourhood is in China’s debt.
No Asian country has denounced the Chinese LAC violation or held it responsible for the killings of Indian soldiers. We cannot expect any help from them.
US does not look like a reliable ally in case of a war with China-Pakistan as of now. We have to change it. The cold war is on. We do not have to do much thinking as to which side to choose.
The economy is in shambles & needs urgent revival. The government seems to be hoping that things will become okay by themselves.
The threat is quite imminent and we have to urgently increase our defence preparedness & defence expenditure will have to go beyond what was planned.
Modi’s divisive politics may be okay for his sustenance in power but is bad for India. To face the threats we need a united India.
Solutions: Immediate-Next Two years-Internal
1. Stop the divisive agenda. Cancel CAA & all cooked up charges against people who speak against the government. Government and government bhakts should get used to listening to opposing voices. This is the essence of democracy. If we continue the way we are going then our future will be worse than Pakistan. We will not need an external enemy to defeat us. We will implode.
2. Focus on the economy. Make genuine and sensible plans to increase demand & GDP by listening to sensible economists.
3. Increase defence expenditure & make up all shortfalls in weapons & equipment.
4. Be ready for a defensive war with China-Pakistan. We can fight a defensive battle. We won the Kargil War but it was a stupidly fought war, won by the bravery of junior leaders and little competence above battalion level. We cannot afford a similar war now. We also cannot afford to guard the LAC like the LoC. It will be far too expensive in terms of deployment & logistics cost.
5. End UAPA & release all political prisoners & open up all communication services in J&K.
6. Resolve the issue with Nepal and advise incompetent people like Yogi not to speak on foreign policy matters.
7. Advise Shah not to talk of retaking Aksai Chin & such stuff. Nobody should indulge in war-mongering.
8. Stop wasting precious money on Howdy Modi, Namaste Trump & expensive hosting of Xi twice. Personal publicity is not a substitute for sensible diplomacy.
9. Don’t talk of Boycott China. We will suffer more than China.
10.Get the trade deal signed with US at the earliest.
Long term: 10 Years
11.Develop the Israel like mentality. It is needed to counter the China-Pakistan threat.
12.Get into an anti-China alliance with Asian powers as well as US & get out of Shanghai Cooperation, BRICS & all groupings involving China.
13.China is vulnerable in Xingiang province and so also is the CPEC. We should do to China what Pakistan has been doing to India in Kashmir.
14. Get our economy to double digit growth and bring down trade with China to not more than 3-5%.
15.Bring up defence preparedness to fight a good defensive battle with China and undertake limited offensive actions against Pakistan.