Will Pakistan Stop Supporting Terrorism against India?
After the Pathankot terrorist strike and some actions initiated by Pakistan it is being believed by some that Pakistan will act against the terrorists and stop supporting terrorism against India. I am convinced that Pakistan is only pretending to act against terrorists for a short while to pacify the world and Indian opinion. She has no intent, or reasons to change her strategy of bleeding India through the proxy war to keep alive the hopes of wresting Kashmir. In this blog: “Will Pakistan Stop Supporting Terrorism against India?” an attempt has been made to explain the rationale for expected Pakistani actions.
Pretend Action against Terrorists
There has been one change in Pakistan’s approach to the Pathankot incident. The change is that Pakistan has not out rightly denied any involvement in the incident as has been the traditional past practice. What is the apparent reason for this? The simple reason is that against heavy and obvious evidence the usual approach of denial was too incredible an option and hence was not chosen. Why Pakistan is pretending action against terrorists? Some salient reasons assessed are given below:
- To resist political pressure from India.
- To resist pressure from US and continue to receive funds from US.
Why Pakistan will not give up Proxy War Strategy?
Pakistani Army dictates the foreign policy. Pakistani Army wants to wrest Kashmir from India. In order to keep alive her chances of doing so the Army does not want peace and normalcy in Kashmir. Pakistan has been able to achieve this by continuing the proxy war at a low intensity (which is below the threshold level instigating a conventional strike by India). Whenever political relations get too friendly a terrorist strike or border firing is escalated to derail the peace process. Similarly, whenever the situation gets ‘too hot’, like after the Indian Parliament attack some action is pretended to wait for ‘temperatures to cool’ before recommencing the proxy war. I see no reason for Pakistan Army to give up the low cost strategy. In the existing bilateral and international environment India lacks the capability to make Pakistan Army give up this strategy. Thus it can be safely predicted that no serious action will be taken against any terrorists operating against India by Pakistan.