Imagining India in Next 10 Years
When Zia-ul Haq became Pakistan’s President I had not visualized what a long lasting adverse impact his tenure would have on Pakistan. Prior to him Pakistan was not so bad. Radical Islam has ruined Pakistan. At home in India, Indira Gandhi gave Indian politics and culture several dirty, (near permanent) gifts, like:
- Rating personal loyalty above merit. This in my view was her single biggest negative impact on India. This culture is all pervasive even today from Generals to Presidents.
- Subversion of institutions.
- Dirty political manipulations.
- Creation of unconstitutional power centers like Sanjay Gandhi & Dhirendra Brahmachari.
Modi , easily worse than Indira Gandhi , is the closest any Indian leader has come to Zia-ul-Haq and if Indian public is stupid enough to re-elect him to power till 2024 India’s future would have the following salient main features:
- Religious leaders will become all powerful. No politician or the judiciary will be able to put a future “Ram Rahim” in jail. After Modi the next PM will be Adityanath and he will prove to be a radical Hindu version of Aurangzeb.
- Divisive politics, religious hatred and violence will increase. No legal action would be taken against Hindu killers of Muslims. Kodnani, Bajrangi, Pragya Devi and Aseemanand would be future celebrities and their statues would be erected after their deaths.
- Among India’s institutions the only one which remains credible is the “Indian Metrological Department”. Yogi Adityanath may of course get some “Tantrik” to head it and I am sure some regressive Hindus will rejoice!
- Indian Media will lose all credibility and we will have to get authentic information from only foreign media.
- India will regress and we will not even be allowed to discuss problems like growth and unemployment.
- India will steadily drift into a mirror image of Pakistan and will be a trouble spot for the world.
- Kashmir will become a miserable place. Violence between India and Pakistan will increase in intensity and frequency- something like the long Iran-Iraq war.
- Like Pakistan is dependent upon China for creation of infrastructure India will need Japan or some other country to do so. Like Pakistan’s sovereignty has been subverted so will be India’s.
If Indian public is sensible, which I sincerely believe to be true, then Modi will be out for good in 2019. We will have something like the “Janata” government that we saw in 1977. The government will be an utter mess. There will be infighting and continuous power struggles. Surprisingly there will be following benefits:
- There will be rule of law & upholding of the Constitution.
- The judiciary and other Indian institutions will emerge stronger from their beating in the Modi misrule.
- Suffering of minorities, Dalits and farmers will reduce.
- Situation in Kashmir will improve and violence with Pakistan will reduce, lowering the suffering of Pakistan border residents.
- State governments will not be unconstitutionally dismissed.
The government elected to power in 2019 will not last the whole term and we shall have elections by 2022-23. The government which comes to power will probably be good for India. Unfortunately Indians have to choose between two bad options. I hope Indians will choose the lesser evil like they did in 1977!