Rise of BJP & Inevitable Fall in 2019
Modi led BJP won a massive majority in 2014 by securing only 31% of the votes polled. I was also a Modi supporter but will now vote against him. The BJP is now set to lose the elections in 2019. Here is the analysis.
Understand 2014 Victory
A lot of literature is available on the subject. Here are the salient reasons:
- A lot of Indians were fed up of massive UPA corruption, a silent PM & a non-performing government.
- A large number believed in some of the false promises of Modi in the election campaign.
- Some of us had good memories of Vajpayee government & felt that BJP would bring development like the previous NDA government.
Metamorphosis of BJP After 2014
Rise of Modi
As an Army man I have followed rise of insurgent and terrorist leaders more than political leaders. Insurgents and terrorists leaders emerge based on their hardcore ideology and acts of violence. Modi’s emergence is quite similar. Let me explain: The previous BJP government had come to power under the leadership of Advani. Advani was given the title of, ‘Iron-man’ by his followers, not because of some bravery, but because of his role in undertaking an unconstitutional and illegal act of demolition of ‘Babri Masjid’. Modi has been a RSS ‘pracharak’ and is largely believed to have been complicit in the killings of Muslims in Gujarat riots as CM. Thus Modi, being younger, met the criteria of being the leader of the hardcore ‘Hindutva’ group more than Advani.
Government of 21/2 Men!
BJP under Vajpayee had been different from the current BJP. Like Indira, who finished internal democracy in Congress (which sadly continues till date), Modi finished democracy in BJP. Over 1.3 billion Indians are today being misruled by 2 ½ men!
Modi’s Policy for Continuation in Power
- Continuation in Power in BJP. Like Indira, an autocrat like Modi will worry about continuation in power in the BJP more than BJP’s continuation in power in India. Threat to Modi’s leadership in BJP comes primarily from Yogi Adityanath, who also has plenty of criminal cases against him and has a more militant image than Modi. To ward off this threat and to continue as a leader of the hardcore ‘Hindutva’ Modi has to maintain his anti-Muslim and pro-violence credentials. This explains the tacit government support to cow-vigilantes and killers of Muslims.
- Policy for Perpetuation of Modi Misrule. The policy for perpetuation of Modi misrule is simply promotion of the following:
- Divisive politics.
- Creation of fear in the minds of Hindus against Muslims and act like their savior.
- Mixing of religion with politics and promotion of illogical traditional beliefs like denouncing Darwin, ‘frog marriages’ to bring rain, ‘havans’ to reduce pollution & so on.
- Create Image of Being Pro-Development. In the areas which are controlled by insurgents and terrorists such leaders also undertake some social and development work to create a positive image. Whatever minuscule progress that has been affected by Modi in his 4 years misrule has not been his prime focus but is just a part of image building. That is why headline seeking issues are given priority rather than genuine work. Examples:
- GDP growth rates.
- Bullet train.
- Improved world rating in ease of doing business and so on.
Inevitable Downfall in 2019
Remember only 31% vote share brought BJP to power in 2014. Even the staunchest of ‘Modi-bhakts’ would agree that the vote share in 2019 would reduce because of the poor governance. Let us now look at some hypothetical figures of reduction and increase in vote-share.
- Farmers. Farmers are by and large unhappy. Farmers form about 47% of India’s population. It would be safe to assume at least 4 % reduction in the vote share from 2014.
- Unemployed Youth. The youth was expecting improvement in job creation. Events like interference in JNU, AMU, state of higher education, SSC Scam, CBSE Exam Scam and no improvement in job opportunities will cause a drop of at least 3% of past and newly added voters.
- People Fed-up of Sonia Misrule & Believing in Modi’s False Promises. Middle class urban population who were fed up of Sonia misrule and who believed in the false promises like, “Sabka saath, sabka vikas” will now punish Modi for non-performance. This will cause a drop of at least 2% in the vote share.
- RSS & Hardcore ‘Hindutva’ Elements. As the flow of black money to BJP’s coffers has increased greatly the following would have increased:
- RSS membership by maximum 3%.
- Hardcore ‘Hindutva’ elements may have increased by 1%. This 1% increase is assessed because most of them were already BJP supporters and addition of such people would not be more than 1%.
Hence we see a fall of 4+3+2 % against an increase of 3+1 %,
; thus making an effective reduction of about 5%. This will imply Modi led BJP getting a vote share of 26% against the 31% obtained in 2014.
BJP won in 2014 because the opposition was divided. The opposition will be greatly consolidated in 2019. Examples:
- Display of opposition unity at Karnataka government’s swearing-in ceremony.
- The last UP Lok Sabha bypolls.
- Open support of opposition CMs to Kejriwal in his fight against Modi supported illegal actions of the Delhi LG.
Thus the twin effects of loss in vote share and consolidation of opposition votes will lead to the defeat of BJP in 2019.