Surgical strikes & aerial strike were good actions by the Defence Forces. These demonstrated India’s ability and political will to strike inside POK. It was used by Modi as a tool to spread the following false propaganda:
- Pakistan has been taught such a lesson that it will never again dare to attack.
- Modi & BJP are the biggest saviours of India from external enemies (Pakistan) & internal enemies (Muslims).
- Modi & Doval are the supermen who planned the strikes.
The truth is as follows:
- Pakistan was lying low because of international pressure, particularly US & own ruined economy.
- Since Pakistan has aided US in the Taliban deal it is again back in the good books of the US.
- Post the Taliban deal, Pakistan has been encouraged to recommence her mischief in Kashmir. Pakistan’s focus on the North-western border has reduced & it has greater ability to focus on Kashmir now.
- Modi’s removal of Article 370, suspension of democracy, illegal detention of politicians, crippling of Kashmir’s economy & targeting of Muslims as anti-nationals has definitely angered the Muslims in India in general & Kashmir in particular.
- Kashmiri Muslims have realized that none of the following are concerned about their welfare:
- Congress & practically all the major political parties.
- Majority of the population of the Indian heartland.
- Kashmiris have also been badly let down by the judiciary.
Modi’s policy of crushing dissent has led to disenchantment with the central government. The alienation of Kashmiris will rise further. Pakistan is now in a better situation to act as a catalyst to increase violence in Kashmir. The situation will get worse in the future.
For the future worsening of the situation I will allocate the following weightages to the contributory factors:
- Modi’s Hindutva politics: 80%
- Kashmiris being letdown by heartland population & the opposition parties: 10%.
- Judiciary: 5%
- Pakistan: 5%.